WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Barack Obama The path to reelection in 2012 is likely to be narrower than in his first season, it could lose several traditionally Republican states, captured in 2008.
Obama expanded dramatically in the political arena in 2008, competing and winning in states that have not supported a Democratic presidential candidate in a generation, but the card next year could be more like President George W. the reelection of Bush 's narrow victory over Democrat John Kerry 2004.
The sputtering economy and discontent with his leadership fell on his popularity nationwide, hitting particularly hard in conservative countries such as North Carolina, Indiana and Virginia, in 2008, which broke Democratic losing streak dating back to 1960.
The high unemployment and declining industry has also helped his poll numbers down to a traditional Rust Belt battlegrounds such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which are crucial to his hopes of gathering 270 electoral votes needed to reelection.
Obama won 365 electoral votes are awarded on a state by state basis, a smashing victory in 2008, which gave him 95 electoral votes to spare. This time his margin of error is smaller, "said Quinnipiac University Peter Brown interview.
"He has a shock, but much more than in 2008," said Brown. "It's hard to see, given the current situation, states Obama victory in 2012 has not won in 2008. The question is: How many states have more to lose?"
The Obama campaign has pledged to push hard to compete in states like North Carolina and Virginia, where he was helped last time by a large turnout among blacks. In a sign of commitment, the designated Democratic Convention held in Charlotte, North Carolina.
E 'was chosen over St. Louis, Missouri - Obama narrowly lost the state in 2008 that many Democrats believe has moved further towards the Republicans. Indiana conservative seems even less likely to accept Obama.
Republicans scored significant gains in Congress and governor races last year on worries the economy and deficit, and Republican strategists say Obama will campaign harder in 2012 to sell his story about spending and health care.
"The last time, Obama could be elected for inspiration - he moved from Washington, has a new kind of leader, it was not George Bush," said Republican Jim Dyke strategic.
"There was not much of a record to judge him on and will be different this time," he said. "There's always this rhetoric in his voice, but his hands are full of some very strong political views, which will be explained."
Besides the traditional big three battlegrounds - Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida - Nevada and Colorado will be decisive in the hope of Obama.
These two western states and New Mexico are home to large Hispanic populations that Democrats hope to create a bastion of the West in 2012. Some Democrats hope to add to the mix of Arizona.
Obama has increased its thrust on the election campaign, immigration reform, despite a slight chance for congressional approval before the election. Polls show Republican resistance, the problem is taken care of Hispanic support for Democrats.
"No matter who is on the ticket, Republicans will struggle in 2012 with Latino voters," said Simon Rosenberg, president of the Democratic advocacy group NDN. Hispanics may also have an impact on Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and be a factor in some other states, he said.
Video where the Obama campaign boss Jim Messina last month showed defend Obama won 12 states in 2008, less than 15 percentage points - Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Indiana, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.
In 2004, Democrat Kerry won only four of them - Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.
"The Republicans are going to be fired up to President Obama," Messina said the video, which is sent to Obama supporters. "This is not 2008."
The redistribution of electoral votes based on the 2010 census also spend a few votes in Republican-leaning states. In 2008, Obama has won eight of 10 states lose seats.
The persistently high unemployment rate will also be vital to hopes of Obama, and several key battlegrounds of 2012 have unemployment rates above the national average of 9 percent.
Nevada, where the flow of new residents and growth of the Hispanic population Obama has made profit for 2008 is the highest unemployment rate stood at 11.9 percent. Florida and North Carolina also have unemployment rates above 9 percent.
Rosenberg said that the political map should have a strong impact on how cheap the next 18 months.
"After a year if the economy is in good condition, Obama can be elected. If not, does not. It 's so simple," he said.
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